Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
