Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
