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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.