Brazil’s climate chief, Marina Silva, has urged all nations to show the bravery needed to confront the imperative of a worldwide fossil fuel phaseout, describing the creation of a detailed plan as an “ethical” response to the global warming emergency.
She emphasized, however, that involvement in this endeavor would be voluntary and “independently decided” for interested governments.
The topic stands as one of the most debated matters at the UN climate summit in the host country, with nations divided over whether and in what way such a roadmap can be addressed. Hosting the event, Brazil has adopted a balanced stance on what can be placed on the formal agenda.
Silva voiced support for the potential of a plan, without explicitly committing the country to it. The minister remarked: “In times we have a situation that is quite grim, it is helpful that we have a guide. But the map does not compel us to travel, or to advance.”
Speaking further, the minister noted: “The map is an response to our scientific knowledge [of the climate emergency]. It is an ethical response.”
Dozens of nations gathered in the host city for the global climate conference, which is entering its next phase, are seeking to determine how a worldwide phaseout of oil, gas, and coal could work. They aim to build on a landmark agreement made two years ago at COP28 to “move away from fossil fuels.”
The pledge lacked a schedule or specifics on how it could be achieved, and even though it was passed by all, several nations have later tried to disavow the promise. Efforts last year to expand on its practical meaning were blocked by resistance from petrostates at another UN summit.
Consequently, there was no mention of the shift away from fossil fuels in the outcome of COP29.
Because of this, Brazil has been cautious of calls by certain countries to include the transition on the schedule for COP30. But the minister has worked hard in private to make sure the topic could be talked about at the conference outside the formal agenda.
She convinced Brazil’s leader, and he gave mention repeatedly to the need to “move away from reliance on fossil fuels” at the global leaders' meeting that came before the conference, and at the opening of the event.
“The issue is something that we know at some point had to be put forward, because it is the sole way to face the issue from the source,” Marina Silva said. “We recognise that it is challenging, and we must not sell false hopes. Raising the topic is brave, and I hope [to see] this courage from all, from producing nations and using countries.”
The nation had not initiated the call for a phaseout, the minister said, because that had been initiated at COP28. Rather, it was enabling the discussions to take place in line with what some countries desired. “We understand these subjects are sensitive. We will provide the chance to talk about it,” the minister added.
There is not enough time at COP30 to draw up a roadmap, a task Silva said could take a number of years because many countries confronted complex challenges around dependence on carbon-based energy, or aimed to use the proceeds from exporting fossil fuels to fund their development.
“The country brings up the subject, because Brazil is both a producing nation and user,” she noted. “But Brazil is unique, because it, if it wants to, does not have to rely on non-renewables. We have to understand that there are some that rely on carbon energy in their economic systems and don’t have simple alternatives, and others where oil and gas are the basis of their economy.
“To be just is to be fair to everyone, but the fundamental, basic justice is to avoid being unjust to the Earth, because it is our home.”
Should the proposal receives enough support, COP30 could establish a forum in which the work of drawing up a roadmap to the phaseout could begin.
The process would require discussions with every participating nations to the UN climate treaty and criteria for how the initiative would unfold, Silva said. “Once we have standards, a management framework can be developed; once we have a strategy, and create safeguards to be able to establish confidence in the process, I am confident that with these components we can turn good ideas into steps that are more defined, and more tangible.”
It is uncertain that a suggestion to begin developing a roadmap would be accepted at the conference, although it does not require the formal approval of the summit, which operates by consensus and can be disrupted by particular groups. Climate analysts have indicated they think there could be support for such a idea from about sixty nations, but there are thought to be at least forty opposed. A total of 195 countries represented at the negotiations.
“In spite of being the root cause of climate change, fossil fuels are about the most divisive subject there is within the UN negotiations, so to see a chunky coalition of countries openly supporting a path to achieving global phaseout is in itself highly significant.”
“In simple terms, there’s no route to a planet where temperature rise remains below 1.5 degrees in which countries cannot to talk about fossil fuel phaseout.”
“We require this wording for real in this conversation. It’s quite stupid that we discuss everything but then when the main issue are the actual problem.”
Discussions continued on the weekend on four unresolved topics that have not yet been incorporated into the official schedule: commerce, openness, finance and how to tackle the gap between the emissions cuts nations have proposed and those required to hold to the 1.5C temperature target.
A summit president pledged a “note” that would cover these issues, after discussions – which have been underway since the start of the week – were inconclusive. He urged nations to embrace the “mutirão” spirit, meaning one of collaboration and positive dialogue.
Work on additional substantive topics – including adjustment to the effects of the climate crisis, the just transition for those impacted by the move to a green economy and how to build governance capabilities in developing countries – proceeded productively, the host reported.
The host nation's chief negotiator said the technical part of the COP process was approaching the end, and the political phase – when ministers who have the power to alter their countries’ positions join – was beginning.
